Since my return from Egypt, I came to the conclusion that while seeing and appreciating the Pharaohnic world, I saw little and understood less of Egypt itself. I saw a country that appeared under-resourced and with poor infrastructure that was enduring a massive political upheaval. All of my pre-departure research related to the period that ended with Augustus’ victory over Mark Antony and Cleopatra. I have tried to catch up on more current events in the past two weeks. In addition to my general reading and obsession with Egyptian news, I read two prescient books that essentially predicted the 2011 Revolution: Tarek Osman, “Egypt on the Brink” (2010) and John R. Bradely, “Inside Egypt” (2008).
The history of Egypt since the late 19th century has been one of pendulum swings. The heirs of Mohammed Ali who founded the monarchy built a western style cosmopolitan society. Up to and including the reign of King Farouk, a constitutional monarchy was being formed and developed. Cairo and Alexandria were European polyglot cities and “liberal” capitalism was the economic order. Of course, Farouk took hedonism to bizarre levels, capitalism did not trickle down very much and ordinary Egyptians could care less about café society on the Corniche in Alexandria.
Nasser followed Farouk with a nationalist and pan-Arab agenda. Capitalism, cosmopolitan society, western culture and friendship with the West were all discarded. Out went the west and in came the Soviets. The 67 War effectively ended the nationalist/ eastern bloc project. Nasser lived three more years but Nasser’s agenda ended with the War.
The pendulum swung again with Sadat/Mubarak who brought back a tilt toward the West and ended Soviet influence. Egypt became the lynch-pin of American strategy to secure the oil routes and maintain stability in the middle-east and this strategy held for forty years. During this time, however, the Egyptian ruling class failed to obtain legitimacy from the population, developed crony capitalism to a fine art, and ruled through a police state. Corruption and inefficiency were the key highlights of everyday life for the vast majority of the population. The upper echelon consisting of military related personnel and Mubarak cronies (and relatives) did not allow for political maturity at a time when social and technological changes were rampant.
During the forty years of Sadat/Mubarak, the only effective counter to the government was the Muslim Brotherhood. The pendulum has now swung again. The MB will soon be in charge. There is a broad sense in the west that the military will not give up its power and will work with the MB. I am not convinced that this will have a long run. I think it more likely that, with patience, the MB will insist on a Turkish style government with the military subservient to civilian rule. I think the pendulum will swing away from the West but there will be quite a bit of leeway for expression and diversity (within limits). I do not believe there will be a direct military challenge to Israel but tensions will no doubt increase. I do not believe the pan-Arab project will be reborn; I think Egypt will focus on its own borders. The liberal 25% will be in opposition and will hope for the failure of the ruling MB. I believe the government will put an end to the anti-Americanism surrounding the NGO mess and will look to reinvigorate foreign direct investment.
