Thursday, March 1, 2012

Egypt: Background to the Current Scene

Since my return from Egypt, I came to the conclusion that while seeing and appreciating the  Pharaohnic  world, I saw little and understood less of Egypt itself.  I saw a country that appeared under-resourced and with poor infrastructure that was enduring a massive political upheaval. All of my pre-departure research related to the period that ended with Augustus’ victory over Mark Antony and Cleopatra. I have tried to catch up on more current events in the past two weeks.  In addition to my general reading and obsession with Egyptian news, I read two prescient books that essentially predicted the 2011 Revolution:  Tarek Osman,  “Egypt on the Brink”  (2010) and John R. Bradely, “Inside Egypt” (2008).

The history of Egypt since the late 19th century has been one of pendulum swings. The heirs of Mohammed Ali who founded the monarchy built a western style cosmopolitan society. Up to and including the reign of King Farouk, a constitutional monarchy was being formed and developed. Cairo and Alexandria were European polyglot cities and “liberal” capitalism was the economic order. Of course, Farouk took hedonism to bizarre levels, capitalism did not trickle down very much and ordinary Egyptians could care less about café society on the Corniche in Alexandria.

Nasser followed Farouk with a nationalist and pan-Arab agenda. Capitalism, cosmopolitan society, western culture and friendship with the West were all discarded. Out went the west and in came the Soviets. The 67 War effectively ended the nationalist/ eastern bloc project. Nasser lived three more years but Nasser’s agenda ended with the War.

The pendulum swung again with Sadat/Mubarak who brought back a tilt toward the West and ended Soviet influence. Egypt became the lynch-pin of American strategy to secure the oil routes and maintain stability in the middle-east and this strategy held for forty years. During this time, however, the Egyptian ruling class failed to obtain legitimacy from the population, developed crony capitalism to a fine art, and ruled through a police state.  Corruption and inefficiency were the key highlights of everyday life for the vast majority of the population. The upper echelon consisting of military related personnel and Mubarak cronies (and relatives) did not allow for political maturity at a time when social and technological changes were rampant.

During the forty years of Sadat/Mubarak, the only effective counter to the government was the Muslim Brotherhood. The pendulum has now swung again. The MB will soon be in charge. There is a broad sense in the west that the military will not give up its power and will work with the MB. I am not convinced that this will have a long run. I think it more likely that, with patience,  the MB will insist on a Turkish style government with the military subservient to  civilian rule.  I think the pendulum will swing away from the West but there will be quite a bit of leeway for expression and diversity (within limits). I do not believe there will be a direct military challenge to Israel but tensions will no  doubt increase. I do not believe the pan-Arab project will be reborn; I think Egypt will focus on its own borders. The liberal 25% will be in opposition and will hope for the failure of the ruling MB. I believe the government will put an end to the anti-Americanism surrounding the NGO mess and will look to reinvigorate foreign direct investment. 




Sunday, February 12, 2012

Out of Egypt (With apologies to Andre Aciman)


Some random thoughts and comments on what I observed that I did not wish to publish  from Egypt.

Bear in mind, please, that I had personal interactions only with out local tour guide, a “liberal” woman of about 35, two or three Egyptian  men who worked for the American tour operator, and a physician who treated me for a minor problem. Of course, I interacted with hotel staff and about 5,000 street merchandise hawkers but I had no conversations with them.


Tahrir Square
. We went to the Egyptian Museum on the morning of a scheduled “million man march.” We were in and out of the Museum before the demonstration began. The Museum is right next to the former headquarters of the Democratic (Mubarak’s) party. The building has been utterly destroyed by fire and just the hulk stands there. This is really the center of Cairo, next to the Museum and fancy hotels. I think people are satisfied to keep the ruin there as a symbol of the “ancien regime.” Traffic that day into central Cairo was horrible but maybe it is horrible every day. There were Egyptian flags everywhere, sort of the way it was in NY after 9/11. I was told that pre-Revolution no one would have thought to fly a flag.

Traffic and security. I didn’t see traffic lights anywhere in Cairo or Giza (the Cairo suburb in which the Pyramids are located) and certainly none in the other cities. There were accidents and arguments all over the place. Crazy.

The approach into and out of Cairo airport is very similar to Ben Gurion. Modern and lovely with the same kind of security set up; only in Cairo no one stops the cars. There were no soldiers visible in Cairo airport. In fact, the only soldiers I ever saw were in Aswan at the airport and by the High Dam. Cairo airport is really like BG, a modern terminal with much more capacity than seems to be needed. The “modern” part ends abruptly as soon as you go out the door, just as it does in TA with the confusion with Sherutim and buses. In Cairo, the confusion is slightly more pronounced and it really helps to have someone wait for you. In fact, the tour operator always has at least two people waiting: one to get me through and one to drive the van.

The police are sort of under siege after the protests and particularly after the “soccer massacre,” so three was not much police presence in Cairo. From Luxor going north, there were many police “check points” which consist of booths alongside the road manned by one or two uniformed police who didn’t stop anyone at all.

I arrived in Cairo around midnight and the ride to Giza was over an hour. The road first went through  a quite lovely area with office buildings and high-rise apartments. The road and the neighborhood both deteriorated after about 30 minutes. The streets were full of people and street markets were open and crowded everywhere.

South of Aswan, the monuments are pretty empty as the only sensible way to approach them is by boat on Lake Nasser. There was security in each monument that consisted of either a young soldier with an Uzi (pretty sure it really was an Uzi) or a  middle aged “tourist policeman” with  a handgun. In these cases, the security guy would walk around with our group. On certain days our group was accompanied by a tough looking young soldier type with an Uzi (seemed very Israeli).

We had one troublesome encounter. At Hatshepsut’s Temple, the AIA arranged a viewing of part of the temple that is generally closed to the public. (In fact, this tour was called “Hidden Treasures” because we had access to several sites that are usually closed including the interior of the step pyramid and several off-limit tombs.) Anyway at Hatshepsut’s Temple, a group of clearly religious young men vehemently objected to our having access while they were excluded. Tensions were high, particularly since this was the precise location of the massacre of the Swiss and German tourists ten or so years ago. Several of our group were perfectly happy to pass on the visit, but the guide and accompanying archaeologist were determined to bring us in. The temple guards (not police or soldiers, just unarmed guards) stood their ground and we went in without incident and when we came out the young men were gone. I think we were all happy to get back on the bus. I am sure we seemed to be the last vestige of colonialism,  and maybe we were.

Women and Liberalism: The vast majority of women have their hair covered with head scarves in Cairo. Outside of Cairo, virtually every woman had her hair covered. Our guide does not cover her hair. She professes to be religious and says her mother and sister do cover their hair but that she says she can be a believer and modern at the same time. Her husband is a hotel manager who spends part of every week at Sharm el Sheikh. She and her husband lived in the US for several years while he worked at a hotel in Florida.

She said she had not previously been involved in politics but joined the women’s march and identifies with the sign she saw that said: “I want to live to see another president.” She supports Mubarak being put on trial and believes he should be punished (executed?). She believes the real cause of the revolution was the fear of the military that Gamal Mubarak (the son) would be put in charge and that the military actually supported and maybe fomented the revolution. She seems to believe that conspiracies lie behind everything in Egypt; she may be correct.

Anyway, she both fears and admires the Muslin Brotherhood. She fears that they may impose their values  regardless of what they say and admires their courage for their steadfastness during the Mubarak years. She says if the environment becomes too religious or repressive she will emigrate ( to Norway, not sure what the connection is but she probably has a relative there.)

Interestingly, the doctor I met, absolutely without my asking, said he cares only about his family and not about politics. He said if things get bad, he will move to Germany and that he has secured German citizenship. The Egyptian Gazette (an English language newspaper)) reported on the continuing brain drain to Canada and elsewhere. I think elsewhere means the USA.

Our "liberal" guide and our American church-going West Point Graduate tour operator ( a  really nice man who seems perfectly sensible) both believe that the NGO's and their personnel were doing inapproriate things including paying demonstrators. Al Jazeera reports (with incredulity) that some generals seem to believe that the NGOs were a cats paw for a US invasion! Am I nuts or is everyone else? It seems to me that this will work out pretty quickly not because of fear of loss of US military  aid but for fear of not getting an IMF loan, without which the country is likely to collapse. In any event, the military "government" is salami slicing itself out of existence and the Muslim Brotherhood (which really paid demonstrators) is not worked up on the NGO issue.

Soccer Massacre. The reaction of the few locals I spoke with is confused, naïve and contradictory. They blame the government for repression and they also want the government to impose order. I can see where this is going. The speaker of the Parliament, a Muslim Brotherhood  guy, said the military should resign and the MB should form a government. That government would then  have “legitimacy” and so could end the protests “with whatever means are necessary.” The liberals (not more than 25% of the parliament and badly fragmented) have said they will not join any coalition government so they will be in the victim category. Sounds French and Russian.

Tourism. Hotels were not more than 25% full. The most common languages heard in Luxor were German and Russian. No other Americans a few English folks. Many of the people in my group were blithely unaware of developments while we were there and were deliberately not communicating with relatives back home who were worrying.
As I said in my blog, Philae is on an island and we got there in a 100 year old (so it seemed) rowboat with an outboard motor piloted by a kid who was no more than nine. He had to start the motor by cranking it with a piece of clothesline. We all noticed that another group of tourists-German- were in a spanking new boat captained by a grown-up and all the Germans wore life vests. Our Lake Nasser cruise boat was lovely but there never was a safety drill and this was less than a month after the Italian cruise boat incident. So no police, no regulation and nobody gives a damn. While we were in Egypt, three German tourists drowned in a sightseeing submarine off the Sinai coast. That didn’t stop several of our group from going up in a hot air balloon to view Luxor. I hope the guy controlling the balloon was more than 9 years old.

Roads and River. The north-south roads going out of Luxor stink and there does not seem to be any commercial river traffic at all. The land along the River is fertile (it is now irrigated and fertilized since the Nile no longer inundates). I saw fifty miles of sugar cane but the cane is moved principally by camel and donkey cart. There seem to be resources but no infrastructure.

Gasoline lines. Service stations either have no gas or have gigantic lines. We had to change buses every day because the driver couldn’t fill up. No explanation given but my theory is that this relates to the subsidies. Gasoline is heavily subsidized by the government and this is primarily a middle and upper class benefit. The government can’t afford the subsidy but is probably afraid to take it away so I bet the government is controlling its outlay by limiting the supply rather than adjusting the price. That is my guess.

Local color. As we drove out of Luxor we saw hundreds (maybe thousands) of kids in the villages. Everyone of them smiled and waved at the bus. Some of my fellow travelers said they saw a few grownups making hostile gestures but I only saw smiling kids and friendly adults. I cannot begin to describe the hawkers who approach any and all visitors to any temple or site or street or airport. Everyone wants money and some are straight-forward saying “I want money.” Usually the hawker is trying to sell you some useless item but you cannot shake these people off your tail. It is the same story in retail stores. If they would just let you look they would sell more. I never felt unsafe just totally hassled. It would be exhausting to do this trip without a group and professional tour operator who immunizes you just a bit.

The most common site in Egypt.  Every street corner and almost every building is plastered with colorful campaign posters usually of smiling men wearing ties. Occasionally  there is a poster of  a sheikh or imam and very rarely of a female. I wonder what the streets looked like before Mubarak’s fall; certainly less colorful.

The second most common site. Half built buildings and apartment houses. Various explanations were given. The building is not on the tax roll until completed; a guy builds a new floor for his son who will marry one day but not yet; cheap financing; corruption; who knows what. There seemed to me to be more incomplete buildings than complete ones. I sort of remember the same thing in Turkey fifteen years ago.

Random thoughts. I got a great sense of satisfaction at the Aswan  High Dam. All that is left of Nasser is the Lake and all that is left of the Soviet Union is the Friendship Monument. Thus always to tyrants!

Shabbat in Luxor. I had the weirdest feeling that I was the only person in Luxor, perhaps in Egypt, who heard the Muzzein on Friday night and celebrated Shabbat. This in the land of Maimonides and the hundred thousand Jews who were forced out just in our lifetime.

The future. I am not buying stock in Egypt any time soon.

What I saw. I absolutely am thrilled that I took this trip. It met or exceeded my expectations. It put everything I read and studied into a real context. But… I saw nothing of Egypt and the  ancient sites are somewhere between a great museum and Disneyland. It happens that I love both museums and Disneyland so I am ok with that. Contrast this with Rome, which is also Disneyland but is a living breathing place. The ancientness ( I know there isn’t such a word) of Egypt and the sophistication of so much of what is there is unparalleled anywhere else. Inshallah, I would go back in less exciting times.

I need to think more on the New Kingdom and the Exodus story. Aknathen, a true mon-theist is part of this puzzle as is abrupt change of policies and capitals and building projects and the introduction of chariots and horses. I am not turning into a Bible literalist but the “foundation” story does appear to have some foundation.

Farewell, dear Reader.


Look carefully at this fertility god in Karnak

I

Stone Forest in Karnak

50 people stand on top of a column ?

Last Day in Egypt- Karnak, Luxor Museum and Luxor Temple in Daylight


Karnak is at least 3-4 times the size of Luxor Temple. Its most famous features, and deservedly so, are the gigantic columns in the Hypostyle Hall. The colors are mostly faded except for the top parts where you can see the vivid blues and reds. Standing among the 150 or so columns, like all other visitors, I felt myself to be in a stone forest. The largest columns ( need I say it again, almost 3,500 years old) are more than 80 feet tall and the tops are in the form of lotus flowers. The guide book says that there is room for 50 people to  stand on each column; ok so maybe only 40. I have never seen anything like these before. As in so many other temples, structures vary in age from about 2000 BCE to 100 AD. There are two remaining standing obelisks in Luxor. One previously here is now in St Peter’s Square in Rome and one is in front of the Blue Mosque in Istanbul. Hatshepsut’s Obelisk (still here) is 90 feet high.

The Luxor Museum, as advertised, has a concentrated collection of masterpieces. Very few visitors.

After Karnak, I wanted to se Luxor Temple in daylight. It appeared much smaller, having just been at Karnak but I stand by my estimate that it is about the size of the Roman Forum. I would say that Karnak is about the size of Central Park (at least 59-96th Streets, maybe the whole park).

I missed a few important sites, particularly the Valley of the Queens. I understand that Museum Tours runs a tour for ten days with the object of teaching hieroglyphic fluency. Hmmm….

I promise at least  one more interesting posting.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

The Bank of the Nile, South of Luxor

This is how it must have looked in ancient times.

Saturday Night in Luxor


The stars are out in Luxor on Saturday night and I had a most relaxing day. I never left the grounds of the Winter Palace. The main building is an elegant 19th Century Colonial Hotel with a beautiful lobby. Between the main building and the “Pavillion”  where I am staying is a delightful  large garden. It covers an area equivalent to
Fifth Avenue
to Park Avenue; 78th to about 83rd ; in other words, big. It has many different kinds of trees but is dominated by about 50  very tall and slender palm trees. I am on the fifth floor and many of the trees reach beyond my level. There is a very large swimming pool and an aviary with beautiful, exotic birds. I spent most of the day on the terrace of my room and I finally am rested!

Tomorrow, Karnak, which should be one of the highlights of the whole trip. If there is time I will re-visit Luxor Temple, which is right next to the hotel and the Luxor Museum which, I hear, has a concentrated collection of local masterpieces. Then off to Luxor Airport for my flight to Cairo; a five hour layover in Cairo before my flight to Amsterdam; and a five hour layover in Schiphol  before my flight to JFK. All in all, it is good that I am rested.

Thanks for reading. Look for one more post about Karnak and perhaps the Musuem and then one more  for additional comments.